Monday, October 23, 2006

Star Japanese Pitcher Ready for America

In an off-season with few quality free agents a Japanese pitcher who burst into the consciousness of American baseball fans during this winter's World Baseball Classic could benefit more than anyone else. With only Barry Zito, Alfonso Soriano, and Carlos Lee available as legitamate stars, Daisuke Matsuzaka could be one of the highest paid free agents. With many teams looking for starting pitchers and few to be found, the 26 year old from Tokyo, Japan has become a prized commodity. Matsuzaka will have many teams willing to pay a lot of money for his services, because of his talent and the lack of quality free agents.

Matsuzaka has pitched for the Seibu Lions in Japan's Pacific League since 1999 and has won 108 games over those 8 seasons. As a 19 year old rookie in 1999, he won 16 games with a 2.60 ERA to win the Rookie of the Year award. Last season, in what will be his final year with the Lions, he went 17-5 with a career low 2.13 ERA. Matsuzaka is in the prime of his career and although he has had a heavy workload in his career, including a 240 inning season in 2001, he is ready to make the move to American baseball. Matsuzaka is the most prized Japanese player since Ichiro Suzuki and Hideki Matsui moved to America.

He is so popular in Japan that people born in the 1980-1981 period are said to be born in the "Matsuzaka Era." One mysterious part about Matsuzaka is his strange pitch, called the "gyroball" which supposedly moves through the air and seems to come to a dead stop at times.

The pitch can be seen here:



This season there is a major lack of free agents, especially free agent pitchers. The Cardinals' Jeff Weaver and Jeff Suppan moved into the vision of many teams with their success in the playoffs and Zito is the most accomplished of the free agents. Zito, however, has struggled in the past few seasons, but is still young and should still be signed for a lot of money. Zito was solid for the A's this season, finishing with a 16-10 record and a 3.83 ERA, but after a 1.67 ERA in the ALDS, he had a 12.27 ERA in the ALCS. Jason Schmidt is also a free agent, and while at times he has been one of the game's best pitchers he, like Zito, has struggled in recent times. Schmidt went 11-9 last season. Matsuzaka is being pursued by many teams, including the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Baltimore Orioles, all of whom are desperatly looking for pitching help.

Sunday, October 22, 2006

All-Time All-Star Team

A 22 man panel of experts selected a "All Time All-Star Team" for Sports Illustrated a few weeks ago. The team was solid, with good players from top to bottom and all the choices could be justified. However, in many ways the lineup was wrong.

SI's lineup and the article that explains it can be read here

My 25-man roster would be different. It is impossible to really judge who is the best of all-time, because of all the differances in eras. During the early days, contact hitting was valued more than power, during certain eras the pitchers weren't as good and during others the hitters weren't as good. Through looking through stats and the impact players had on their own generation and the game as a whole, a team can be made.

Before getting into the roster I would have, I looked at an article by ESPN's Scoop Jackson, which is linked too in the title of this blog. Jackson does not give his own team, but shows that two of baseball's top players of all-time have been left off, Satchel Paige and Roberto Clemente. Jackson also discusses Barry Bonds and many Negro League stars being left off, insuiating that racism played a role in the selection of the team. While I feel that racism did not play a role, I think it is a disgrace that Paige was left off. Bonds can be justified by the steroid use, because in my opinion, his "post-steroid career" could not have been worthy of this list, and if he had continued at that level of production, would have come close but would have been just left off.

Here is my roster:

Catchers (2)

Johnny Bench and Yogi Berra - I agree with SI on both catchers. While I had to consider whether Mike Piazza belonged on the list, I decided he did not. Bench and Berra dominated their eras, were solid defensively, were good leaders, and also hit well.

First Base (2)

SI cheated when the put Stan Musial in this category, he was an outfielder first, a first baseman second, so I take him off of the list. He played nearly 900 more games in the outfield than at first base. He can and will be considered for the outfield, but Musial is not a All-Star at first base.

Lou Gehrig: I agree with SI again here, Gehrig is deserving of this spot. Gehrig would have reached 3000 hits, at least 500 home runs, and over 2000 RBI if his career was not cut short by disease. Gehrig is the best first baseman of all-time.

Jimmie Foxx: I think the fact that Foxx was not on this team is embarrassing. Foxx was not as good of an all-around hitter as Gehrig, he did not get close to 3000 hits and never had as many doubles or triples or RBI. But Foxx is the best power hitting first baseman that was not influenced by steroids (Mark McGwire). Foxx had 534 career home runs and a .325 career batting average.

Second Base (1):

Jackie Robinson can be considered for this position, but I think he deserves special acknowledgement for breaking the color barrier, but is not the greatest second baseman of all-time. I decided to only put one second baseman on the team.

Rogers Hornsby: Hornsby is one of the greatest hitters ever to play. He hit .400 an amazing three times and had a .356 career average. He won the triple crown two times in is career. While Joe Morgan, Nap Lajoie, Eddie Collins, and Robinson deserve recognition, Hornsby is better than all four of them. Hornsby's best season, 1924, represents how good he was, Hornsby went hitless in just 24 games as he batted .424 to win the batting title. Hornsby won seven batting titles and retired with the second highest batting average in baseball history.

Shortstop (2):

Honus Wagner and Alex Rodriguez: I agree with SI on this one. Wagner represents the old school shortstop, with his 3,420 hits and 723 steals. A-Rod represents the new age of shortstops, with his 464 home runs.

Third Base (1):

Mike Schmidt: SI made a good choice here. Schmidt is the perfect third baseman. He was an amazing defensive player, winning ten Gold Gloves, while also winning three MVPs and hitting 548 career home runs.

Outfielders (8):

Outfield is by far the hardest position to pick, as many of the greatest players in baseball have come from the outfield. SI had 7 outfielders, I decided to take away the extra second baseman and add an outfielder because of that reason. Really I decided to move Musial to the outfield as he remains on the team. I decided to take Joe DiMaggio off the team and replace him with Tris Speaker, because Speaker was the better player. Speaker was the second best player of the first 20 years of recorded baseball and he deserves to be on this list.

Babe Ruth
Hank Aaron
Ty Cobb
Tris Speaker
Mickey Mantle
Ted Williams
Stan Musial
Willie Mays

Other than Satchel Paige, the pitchers that SI chose are the ones I would choose as well, they did a good job. I would take Spahn off the team and move Paige on.

Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez both have strong cases to be on the list, but there is no one for them to replace.

Its always a difficult thing for the best players to be picked and SI did a good job trying.




Trot Nixon: The end of an era


For eight seasons Trot Nixon was one of the faces of the Red Sox franchise. With his hard nosed, "Dirt Dog" style of play, he quickly became a popular player with the passionate Boston baseball fans. He never complained about lack of playing time, never sulked when injured, and was always doing something to help the community. Nixon was never a superstar for the Red Sox, but he had a few very good seasons and was always a consistent player, when not injured. Nixon has been dealt a lot of bad luck, especially in the past few seasons, and has missed a lot of time due to injuries.

While one of the memorable moments of Nixon's career, especially for non-Red Sox fans, is the time he threw a ball into the stands against the Angels, when there were only two outs, Nixon is known in Red Sox nation as a gritty player who has come through in the clutch many times. His 133 career home runs does not seem great, but that number would be higher if not for the injuries.

Nixon is expected to file for free agency after the World Series, when players are allowed to. The Red Sox could pursue Nixon, but most likely will not, as the team has a two young outfielders, David Murphy and Wily Mo Pena, ready to step in and play in right field and also could pursue a free agent outfielder. With Nixon in the decline of his career and because of his injury history, it appears that the era of Trot in right field at Fenway is now over.

Back on October 2nd, Nixon played what could be his final game as a Red Sox player at Fenway park. While he is a man who does not often wear his emotions on his sleeve, Nixon stopped at home plate and tipped his helmet to the fans, showing appreciation for their years of cheers.

"I love this city, I love the people who have made this organization what it is right now. The front office, they understand that, they know that and if it doesn’t work out maybe there’s an opportunity later in my career where I can still come back and be a part of this organization. I would love to play my entire career with one team. I would love to end my career here," Nixon said after the game.

Nixon is a player who is loved by both the fans and his teammates. Manager Terry Francona also feels that Trot will be missed, " It’s hard not to be close to players like Trot. He’d run through a wall for you."

Whether Nixon returns to the Red Sox or not, he will be a player that will always have a special place in the hearts of Red Sox fans.

Thursday, October 19, 2006

Ken Macha Fired: Was It Fair?

Following the Oakland Athletics loss to the Detroit Tigers, general manager Billy Beane fired the team's manager, Ken Macha. Macha had been criticized openly by more than one starter in the past few weeks and was fired despite bringing the A's to the ALCS. Macha had two years and just over 2 million dollars left on his contract.

The complaints against Macha were major. Some players even went as far as to tell Beane that they did not want to return to the team if Macha remained as manager. Because of the complaints and the fact that Macha was unable to take the A's beyond the ALCS, in what was probably the team's greatest opportunity to go far since Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson were traded, and good be the last season that any of the "Big Three" pitches for Oakland, as Barry Zito will probably leave after this season.

Macha has been regarded by many as a poor ingame manager, as well as being cold to his players. Macha has made some decisions over the years that are questionable, especially u pinch hitting Adam Melhuse for Jermaine Dye against the Red Sox in 2003, when the Sox beat the A's in Game 5 of the ALDS, later claiming he pinch hit for Dye because he figured Dye would be walked. Also during the ALCS Macha burned out Kiko Calero and misused Huston Street, pitching him for three innings, bringing him in during the seventh, which may have made sense, but then leaving him in to face Magglio Ordonez, who hit a home run off of him, even though he appeared to be tired. Grady Little was fired because one publicly poor decision revealed a lot of bad decisions throughout the season, Macha was fired for the same thing.

Sunday, October 15, 2006

Detroit Tigers: America's New Team?


The Detroit Tigers have become the biggest story of the 2006 playoff in the same way that the Chicago White Sox became the team of last season. The Tigers are a team that most fans can love, unless they are a Yankees or Athletics fan. The Tigers have an older manager, who represents everything good about the game of baseball. He is a hard worker, he motivates the team, he loves the game and is players, and most importantly, he wears cleats in the dugout, something no managers seem to do anymore. The Tigers are a team that were the biggest losers in baseball just three seasons ago. Now this year they are on the way to the World Series. After nearly becoming the team to lose the most games in baseball history, the Tigers are the top team in the game.

The Tigers are a team not made up of high paid stars, like the Yankees, but a group of players who compliment each other and are a true team. The fans in Detroit love this team and so do many fans across the country. Seeing the team celebrate with the fans in Detroit after winning in the ALCS was something that I will never forget. Players who were on the losing team, like Jeremy Bonderman and Brandon Inge are now stars. Young players, like Justin Verlander and Joel Zumaya have emerged onto the baseball scene, becoming stars themselves. Magglio Ordonez and Ivan Rodriguez are the biggest stars on the team and have played great this postseason.

The team is very similar to the 2003 Florida Marlins, who also were led by an older manager, Jack McKeon. The team was young, with good veterans, that won the World Series. The Tigers are on their way to become like the Marlins, by also winning the World Series.

Friday, October 13, 2006

Putting Baseball in Perspective


82-72 career record.

4.57 career ERA.

Looking at the stats you have to say that the pitcher has had a relatively good career. His record is about .500 and his ERA is average. An average pitcher, which is good, considering how many below average pitchers there are in this country.

1 wife.

1 six year old son.

2 parents.

1 twin brother.

Those stats however are what stick out and mean more when it comes to the story of Yankees pitcher Cory Lidle. On a day when four baseball teams were gearing up for "important" games. On a day where Sportscenter was sure to be devoted to baseball coverage, leading up to the night's "big" games. On that day, everything was about Cory Lidle and rightfully so. Lidle, who was just 34 years old, died in a plane crash on Wedensday, October 10.

Lidle, whose son Chris turned six just three weeks ago, was flying his small plane, along with a flight instructor, along the East River in Manhattan. Something went wrong and Lidle ended up trying to avoid skyscraper apartment buildings and while trying to dodge one building, he ended up flying into the living room of a 4oth floor apartment.

CNN began their coverage of a plane crashing into a building as just another "Could it be terrorism?" story. I happened to flip by and seeing that a plane had hit a building, I decided to stop and watch. I kept the story on in the background as I did other things and after awhile began to get bored with it, it wasn't terrorism, it was just an accident. I didn't know the person, so why should I really care? I felt bad of course when I heard the pilot had died, but it didn't affect me much.

But right before heading out to class I heard something that shocked me. The CNN commentator said that the plane was owned by New York Yankees' pitcher Cory Lidle, and that it is believed he was in the plane when it crashed into the building. Now the story had a face. I could not believe what I had just heard. This was a guy that I cheered against just a few days before, rooted on the Tigers to put on some more runs, off of Lidle. This was a guy who I have watched pitch many times, against the Red Sox and other teams. While I still don't know him personally, somehow a name you know makes the story more real.

I feel so bad for Cory's son Chris, who now will grow up without his dad. On Sportscenter last night, a report about the family said that Chris' first words after he heard about the crash were, "I know it had to be a malfunction. My dad is a good pilot." Its awful that this kid will have to grow up without the man he idolizes. Chris' mother, Melanie, now has to go on without her husband and I feel terrible about that.

We watch baseball with a passion. We love it, we idolize the players. But sometimes we have to realize that baseball really is just a game. Cory Lidle was a guy who saw that. He took time to raise money for charities, playing in and organizing poker tournaments for the Make-A-Wish foundation. He was just a normal guy who happened to be a good pitcher and that was his attitude.

Alan Schwartz, a baseball writer who had become friendly with Lidle over the years, talked to people at Amsterdam Billiards, a place Schwartz had recommended Lidle should go to play pool. Lidle did go often and the manager said that Cory was just like one of the guys. He was willing to talk about his job as a pitcher and he never ignored anyone who wanted to talk to him or asked for an autograph.

Lidle was truly a great guy. He will be missed by many.

Wednesday, October 11, 2006

AL and NL Championship Series Predictions

MLB Playoff Update

The first round of the MLB playoffs is now over and only four teams are left alive. In the American League, the Oakland Athletics and the Detroit Tigers advanced and in the National League, the New York Mets and St. Louis Cardinals advanced. The Tigers surprisingly defeated the New York Yankees in the American League Divisional Series (ALDS), winning the series 3 games to 1. The Yankees, who supposedly had the best lineup in baseball history, were expected to win the series easily, after the Tigers had a rough last month of the season, falling from the top of the AL Central, to the Wild Card.

The Yankees were outpitched by the Tigers starters, Justin Verlander, Kenny Rogers, and Jeremy Bonderman, and Detroit’s stellar bullpen, led by flamethrower Joel Zumaya and veteran Todd Jones. Rogers, a 41 year old veteran who has struggled in the playoffs in the past and has never pitched well against the Yankees, had the game of his life in Game Three, pitching 7 and 2/3 innings of five hit baseball, striking out 8. Bonderman held the Yankees hitless for five innings in Game Four.

The Tigers are the major story of the playoffs so far and have taken the city of Detroit by storm. The Tigers carried manager Jim Leyland off the field and then later returned to celebrate with the 43,000 fans in attendance. The Tigers, who were one of the worst teams in baseball history just a few years ago, have developed good young players, like Verlander, Zumaya, and Bonderman and signed solid veterans, like Rogers, Jones catcher Ivan Rodriguez, and outfielder Magglio Ordonez.

In the other American League series, the Oakland Athletics easily took care of the Minnesota Twins, winning three games to none, by outhitting and outpitching them, including a big win over the top pitcher in the AL, Johan Santana. The A’s were led by longtime ace Barry Zito and Dan Haren, and a strong performance from the bullpen, Kiko Calero, Justin Duchshcerer and Huston Street specifically.

In the National League, the Los Angeles Dodgers fought hard to defeat the New York Mets, but fell three games to none. The Mets, who are without their two top starting pitchers, Pedro Martinez and Orlando Hernandez, won with hitting. Jose Reyes, David Wright, Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado make up the best hitting lineup left in the playoffs. In Game Three on Saturday, the Mets were down 4-3 after five innings, but rallied to score five more runs to win 9-5. David Wright had four RBI in the series, while Jose Reyes had three.

The Cardinals lost one game to the San Diego Padres, when Padres’ starter Chris Young dominated the Cardinal’s hitters, including perennial MVP candidate Albert Pujols. Chris Carpenter, who is the top candidate for the NL Cy Young Award, was able to win both games he started to help the Cards eliminate the Padres in the first round for the second straight season. Carpenter had a 2.02 ERA in his two starts, shutting down the Padres offense in both games.

League Championship Series Predictions

The Detroit Tigers carry momentum into the AL Championship Series (ALCS), which begins on Tuesday, October 10th. The Tigers were the best pitching team in the MLB this entire season, leading both leagues in team ERA. However, the pitchers struggled down the stretch and many experts wondered how the young pitchers and Rogers would handle the playoff pressure. After the Yankees series the Tigers’ pitchers proved that they have what it takes to win. The Athletics also have good pitchers, in Zito, Haren, Esteban Loaiza, and Rich Harden, who will matchup well against the Tigers’ starters. Both bullpens are strong and both lineups are made up of consistent hitters, like the Athletics’ Thomas, Mark Kotsay and Eric Chavez, and the Tigers’ Ordonez, Carlos Guillen, and Craig Monroe. The two teams are even, both strong in all areas of the game. The Tigers momentum and depth of pitching will lead them to the series win, in an evenly played series that goes seven games.

Prediction: Detroit Tigers in seven games.

Over in the NL, the Cardinals and Mets are both teams missing key starting pitchers, the Mets’ Pedro Martinez and the Cards’ Mark Mulder. Both Mulder and Martinez were brought in by their teams to lead them in series like this, but both are injured. The Mets’ are also missing playoff veteran Orlando Hernandez. The Cardinals have a strong lineup, with rookie Chris Duncan, the son of Cardinals’ pitching coach Dave Duncan, who hit 20 home runs in the second half of the season, MVP candidate Pujols who is one of the top three hitters in the league, and veterans Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen, but Rolen and Edmonds have struggled in the playoffs this year and in the past. However, Chris Carpenter is the best starting pitcher in the National League, and can carry the Cardinals to at least two wins. But the bullpen is inexperienced and the rotation is shaky after Carpenter.

The Mets pitching is no better than the Cardinals, but the lineup is much stronger. Reyes is one of the top leadoff hitters in the league and Wright, Delgado, and Beltran can hit for power and drive in Reyes and Paul LoDuca, who both get on base consistently. The Mets will rely on veteran starter Tom Glavine and closer Billy Wagner to lead the pitching staff, but will need the hitting to stay hot to win. In the end, the Mets’ hitters will lead them to victory, while the Cardinals will pick up two wins from Carpenter, who will establish himself as one of the game’s best.

Prediction: New York Mets in six games.

Tuesday, October 03, 2006

National League Divisional Series Predictions - St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres

St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres

The St. Louis Cardinals have been one of the top teams in the National League since 2000, winning the division five times (including this season) and the Wild Card once in the seven seasons since 2000. The Cards reached the World Series in 2004 but were dominated by the Red Sox in four games. The Cardinals feature a veteran lineup led by MVP candidate Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds, and Scott Rolen but after Chris Carpenter the Cardinals pitching staff is weak. The Padres on the other hand have won the NL West in back to back seasons, but last year were easily defeated by the Cardinals in the first round of the playoffs. The Padres now look for revenge against St. Louis, led by ace Jake Peavy, who had a very bad game against St. Louis last season.

The Padres do not have a lineup that is nearly as potent as the Cardinals. Adrian Gonzalez, who was acquired from the Texas Rangers in the off-season, had an impressive season quietly at first base for San Diego, hitting a team high 24 home runs, while driving in 82 runs, which is second on the team, to go along with a .304 average. Mike Cameron, one of the best centerfielders defensively, had a good season with 22 home runs and tied with fellow outfielder Brian Giles with 83 RBI for the team lead. Veteran catcher Mike Piazza had a surprisingly great season, hitting 22 home runs with a .283 batting average. The Padres offense has no one star, but is solid throughout, with Khalil Greene at short, rookie Josh Barfield at second, and former Cub Todd Walker at third. Dave Roberts, the Red Sox ALCS hero, gives San Diego good speed (49 stolen bases), while hitting .293. Roberts also had 13 triples on the season.

The Padres are led by young ace Jake Peavy, who has been a solid pitcher the past few seasons, but against the Cardinals in Game 1 of the NLDS last season, he allowed eight hits and eight runs in 4 innings of work. Peavy, who finished 11-14 this season with a 4.09 ERA can be dominate at times and the Padres are hoping to see the great Peavy, rather than the Peavy they saw in the playoffs last year. Peavy has 57 career wins and a 3.51 career ERA in 138 starts. Chris Young, who came over from Texas along with Gonzalez was very impressive all season, finishing 11-5 with a 3.46 ERA. David Wells was bothered by a sore foot after coming over from the Red Sox but provides a great post-season record (8-8, 3.15 ERA in 25 apperances, 16 starts)Veteran Woody Williams, a former Card, went 12-5 with a 3.65 ERA, but in his playoff career he has a 5.5o ERA in 36 innings pitched and last season against the Cards he alloed 5 earned runs in 1 and 2/3 innings pitched and will be the fourth starter in the rotation.

Clay Hensley, who pitched out of the bullpen last season, was a very consistent starter for the Padres and will be a long reliever and should play a key role for the Pads. The Padres have a great bullpen with Scott Linebrink (7-4, 3.57 ERA) and rookie Cla Meredith (5-1, 1.07 ERA) setting up all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman who had 46 saves this season. Alan Embree provides a good lefty reliever.

The St. Louis Cardinals rotation is missing a key piece, do to the injury to starter Mark Mulder, who will not pitch in the post-season. Chris Carpenter is the Cardinals' very reliable ace and finished 15-8 with a 3.09 ERA and should perform well for the Cards. Jeff Weaver, who was brought over from the Angels, will fill Mulder's spot and while he does not have a great post-season record, he was solid for the Cardinals, picking up 5 wins, including a key win over Milwaukee last Friday night, going 3-1 with a 4.15 ERA in September. Jeff Suppan will start the third game for the Cardinals after a 12-7 season, finishing with a 4.12 ERA. Suppan has good post-season success, picking up series clinching wins in 2004 in the NLDS and the NLCS, beating the legendary Roger Clemens in the second game. Jason Marquis should get the fourth starter if needed, because he has nine post-season starts since 2001, with both Atlanta and St. Louis, even though he has no wins in any of those starts. Marquis had 14 wins this season, but also had 16 losses and a 6.02 ERA. Anthony Reyes (5-8, 5.06 ERA) is a future star for the Cardinals, but should start the post-season in the bullpen, but could be called on for Game 4.

The Cardinals are hurt in the bullpen by the injury to closer Jason Isringhausen, who is not perfect, but is reliable. Braden Looper has stepped in as the closer and is off and on, but did finish with a 3.56 ERA this season. Adam Wainwright (2-1, 3.12 ERA) and Brad Thompson (3.34 ERA) are reliable set-up men.

Offensively the St. Louis Cardinals are the dominate team. Led by perennial MVP candidate Albert Pujols, the best hitter of this decade, the Cardinals can score a lot of runs. Pujols had another amazing season, even after missing time due to an injury. If it had not been for the injury, Pujols would have numbers similar to Ryan Howard's and would be the MVP without a doubt. Pujols did hit 49 home runs in 143 games, and drove in 137 runs along with a .331 batting average. Pujols has a career .332 batting average, 250 home runs, and 758 RBI in his six major league seasons. Jim Edmonds, one of the most exciting defensive players in the game, had 19 home runs and is a veteran leader, while Scott Rolen, also an exciting defensive star, hit .296 with 22 home runs and 95 RBI and led the Cards while Pujols was out. Rolen, Edmonds, and Pujols have been great together and this year are looking to get the World Series that they have missed. Yadier Molina is not a great hitting catcher, but is excellent defensively and David Eckstein is the same at shortstop, although he does hit well for contact, with a .292 batting average. Ronnie Belliard came over from the Indians and adds some power at second base, while rookie Chris Duncan, son of Cards' pitching coach Dave Duncan, put together a Rookie of the Year like season with 22 home runs and a .293 batting average in 99 games.

Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals in 5

In a close series, the Cardinals will out-slug the Padres in the end, winning Game 5 through the bat of Albert Pujols and arm of Chris Carpenter.


Monday, October 02, 2006

National League Divisional Series Predictions - New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

The New York Mets did not officially clinch the NL East until September, but unofficially the Mets have had the division won since July. The Mets got out to a very fast start behind the pitching of Pedro Martinez and Tom Glavine and the hitting of a very powerful lineup. The Dodgers on the other hand struggled throughout the early part of the season and could not seem to find any way to win. But the Dodgers went on a remarkable run and are now in the playoffs with a team that is very balanced throughout.

The Mets are now without ace Pedro Martinez, who is out for the next 8 months after surgery. The Mets will now have to turn to veterans Tom Glavine and Orlando Hernandez to lead the pitching staff in the post-season. Hernandez has been a post-season star with the New York Yankees and last year pitched very well for the White Sox out of the bullpen. His career post-season record is 9-3 in 19 games, 14 starts, with a 2.55 ERA and 107 strikeouts and has three World Series rings. This season Hernandez was up and down and finished with a 4.66 ERA, but at times it seems as if he is a different pitcher during the post season and the Mets hope to see the man who put together that impressive record. Glavine had a very solid season, going 15-7 with a 3.82 ERA and in his playoff career 12-15 with a 3.44 ERA and one World Series ring.

After Hernandez and Glavine the Mets are weak, with Steve Traschel and John Maine rounding out the rotation. Traschel won 15 games this season but had a 4.97 ERA and has never pitched in the post-season. Maine, who came over in the Jorge Julio trade with the Orioles, has appeared to be dominant at times, but struggled at other times, and went 6-5 with a 3.60 ERA.

The Mets will depend on the offense to win, just as their New York counterparts the Yankees will. The two New York teams are very similar and both won this season with average pitching and dominant offenses. Jose Reyes is another one of the top leadoff hitters in baseball, much like Damon and Jeter. His .300 average, 19 home runs and 81 RBI, to go along with 64 stolen bases and a .354 OBP made him a legitamate NL MVP candidate. Carlos Beltran became the offensive leader of the team after struggling in his first season of his big Mets contract, hitting 41 home runs and driving in 116 runs, putting together a very impressive case for NL MVP as well. David Wright is the third of the big four in New York, and he hit .311 with 26 home runs and 111 RBI, while the fourth member of the big four, Carlos Delgado, had 38 home runs and 114 runs driven in. Cliff Floyd, Jose Valentin, Paul LoDuca (who could be the best catcher in the NL) and Shawn Green provide good support for the four stars.

The Dodgers on the other hand are very balanced throughout the entire team. The pitching staff is anchored by Derek Lowe (16-8, 3.63 ERA), Brad Penny (16-9, 4.33 ERA), and Greg Maddux (15-14, 4.20 ERA). All three pitchers have World Series rings and give the Dodgers much more depth than the Mets have. Chad Billingsley, a rookie, has been very impressive since coming up to the Dodgers and his 7-4 record with a 3.80 ERA will fill the fourth spot in the rotation.

The Dodgers do not have a poweful lineup, with the resurgent Nomar Garciaparra and J.D. Drew leading the team in home runs with just 20. Garciaparra hit .303 this season and drove in 93 RBI, while Drew had 100 runs driven in, also the team high. Russell Martin, the rookie catcher, hit .282, Rafael Furcal at short hit .300 with 15 home runs, Jeff Kent had 14 home runs, and rookie Andre Either hit .308. Kenny Lofton adds a veteran presence in center field and hit .301 out of the lead off spot, while Julio Lugo adds depth on the bench.

Prediction: New York Mets in 4

The Mets will get solid pitching in games 1 and 2 from Hernandez and Glavine, but Maddux will lead the Mets to a game three win and then the Mets will use offense to win game 4.

Sunday, October 01, 2006

American League Divisional Series Predictions - Yankees vs. Tigers

New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers

The Yankees and Tigers battled down to the end of the season to determine who would have the best record in baseball, but Detroit fell off towards the end and ended up finishing behind the Twins and because of that will face the difficult Yankees in the first round.

The Wild-Card winning Detroit Tigers put together the best season the team has had since the 1987 season, when the Tigers won the division and finished 98-64. Although the Tigers did seem to fall asleep at the wheel towards the end of the year, they still finished with 95 wins. The Tigers turned around what had been a losing franchise through a combination of young pitching, a good bullpen, a veteran ace, and good hitting.

The pitching staff consists of three starters who had great seasons, but none with a good record in important games or playoffs. Kenny Rogers, the veteran ace, finished with a record of 17-8 with a 3.84 ERA, but is 0-3 with an 8.85 ERA in 9 post-season games. The team's young starters, Jeremy Bonderman and Justin Verlander, do not have any post-season experience and Verlander's arm appeared to be tired down the stretch, in his first full season of baseball. Bonderman put together a 14-8 season with an ERA just over 4, while Verlander, the leading candidate for AL Rookie of the Year, went 17-9 with a 3.63 ERA. Nate Robinson (13-13, 3.84 ERA) should round out the playoff rotation, while Wilfredo Ledezma (3-3, 3.58 ERA) will move into the bullpen.

Veteran Todd Jones serves the Kenny Rogers role in the bullpen. Jones had 37 saves with a 3.94 ERA this season, and is set-up by young flamethrower Joel Zumaya (6-3, 1.94 ERA, 97 strikeouts in 83.1 IP). Fernando Rodney (3.52 ERA), lefty Jamie Walker (2.81 ERA), Jason Grilli and Zach Miner round out the bullpen. It will be interesting to see if Miner, or the young Andrew Miller, who was the Tigers' first round draft pick this season out of UNC, makes the post-season roster. Miller was impressive in his 8 games in the majors and it could give him solid experience to stay on the roster, as of September 28th, it was still up in the air.

The Tigers were led on the batting side by a group of veterans. Sean Casey came over mid-season from the Pittsburgh Pirates and took over at first base, after Chris Shelton, who got off to a blistering start cooled off, and hit .272 with 8 home runs and 59 RBI this season. Carlos Guillen at short and Placido Polanco at second give the Tigers a very good hitting and fielding middle infield. Guillen hit 19 home runs with a .320 batting average and 85 RBI, while Polanco hit .295. Brandon Inge gives the Tigers a good glove at third and power in the middle of the lineup, with 27 home runs and 83 RBI. Craig Monroe (28 HR) and Curtis Granderson (19 HR) are two young and powerful outfielders, while fellow outfielder Magglio Ordonez is the team's offensive star with a .298 batting average, 24 home runs and a team high 104 RBI.

While the Tigers success came from great pitching and a balanced offense, the Yankees success came from a dominating offense. The Yankees order is dangerous from top to bottom and its bench features players who could be starters on nearly every other major league team. The pitching staff is not nearly as good as the Tigers, but veterans Mike Mussina, Mariano Rivera, and Randy Johnson provide the playoff experience that Detroit's rotation lacks.

The first starter for the Yankees will be Chien-Ming Wang who has had a great season, with a record of 19-6 and a 3.63 ERA. Wang relies on the ground ball to get outs and has done a fantastic job this season doing that effectively. Behind Wang is Mike Mussina, who was nearly as good this season with a 15-7 record and a lower 3.51 ERA. After Mussina and Wang, the rotation gets shaky. Randy Johnson's bad back could keep him out of the playoffs entirely. Jaret Wright is a former ALCS hero who pitched the Indians to the World Series, but those days are long gone and Wright had a 4.49 ERA this season. Cory Lidle is an up and down pitcher who had a 4.85 ERA this season.

On the offensive side of the game, the Yankees have the best lineup in baseball. Johnny Damon is the game's best leadoff hitter, and hit .285 with 24 home runs and a very high 80 RBI out of the leadoff spot. Derek Jeter could be the second best leadoff hitter in baseball and he is batting behind Damon. Jeter hit .343, finishing just behind Joe Mauer for the AL batting title, with 14 home runs and 97 RBI, often driving in Damon after he got on base. Robinson Cano bats ninth, and often gets on base for Jeter and Damon, with a .342 batting average and 78 RBI. From there the Yankees lineup is a power house. Jason Giambi had 37 home runs at DH/1B, Gary Sheffield, one of the game's most powerful hitters, has returned from injury to play first, Alex Rodriguez has 35 home runs and 121 RBI, Bobby Abreu is an on base machine and also hit for power since coming over from the Phillies, and Hideki Matsui is back from injury and is one of the game's most consistent hitters.

Prediction: New York Yankees in 3

The Yankees will win behind solid pitching from Mussina and Wang in games 1 and 2, and then overpower the Tigers for the win in Game 3.

American League Divisional Series Predictions - Athletics vs. Twins

It seems like just yesterday that the baseball season was beginning, but all of a sudden the All-Star break came and went, the trading deadline passed, and the stretch run to the playoffs was completed. Now eight teams remain, four in the American League and four in the National League, all with eyes on the big prize, the World Series. All of a sudden the MLB Playoffs are here, and in two days, on October 3, the AL and NL Divisional Series begin.

Oakland Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins

The Twins snuck in with the AL Central Championship on the last day of the season and are coming off of an incredible 71-33 run, after starting the season at 25-33. The Oakland Athletics also had to overcome a slow start, as they went 24-29 over the first two months of the season, finishing at 93-69.

The Twins and Athletics have both been playoff regulars for most of the 2000s, but neither have had much success in the playoffs, even after very good regular seasons. This year the Athletics bring a mix of good, young, pitching and solid hitting, while the Twins are led by the best pitcher in baseball, Johan Santana, and two of the great young hitters of this generation, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau.

The Athletics have been led by Frank Thomas, who put together a surprising MVP worthy season and brought veteran leadership to the team. Thomas hit .270 with 39 home runs and 114 RBI. Behind Thomas, the A's received good seasons from many players, especially Nick Swisher (35 home runs and 95 RBI) and Milton Bradley (14 home runs). The team is not one made of stars, but one made of good hitters, like Bobby Kielty, Mark Kotsay, Jay Payton, and Jason Kendall (who recovered from a tough 2005 season to hit .295). Bobby Crosby is injured, but could return if the A's make it to the ALCS. Eric Chavez had an injury plagued season, but still played excellent defense at third base. Defense and clutch hitting was a key ingredient to the success of the A's.

Pitching is what has truly led the Athletics into the playoffs. The quality starting pitchers and bullpen helped keep the A's in all the games that they played. Barry Zito, in his contract year, which could be his last with Oakland, put together another very good season, going 16-10 with a 3.83 ERA. After starting out 1-2 with a 5.93 ERA over the first five games of the season, Zito was nearly unhittable in May, going 3-1 in 6 games with a 1.32 ERA. Zito was 11-5 from June to August, as the Athletics turned the season around and took over the lead in the AL West, including a 4-1 August.

Even without Rich Harden, who pitched in only 7 games before falling to an injury, the rest of the staff was strong. Harden pitched five innings on September 29th and will be part of the playoff rotation. Dan Haren (14-13, 4.12 ERA) also had a 4-1 stretch in August during the team's best month. Esteban Loiaza finished 11-9 with a 4.89 ERA, but was up and down all season, with a 8.35 ERA in April, a 7.26 ERA in July, and a 5.11 ERA in September. However, Loiaza was almost untouchable in August, going 4-0 with a 1.48 ERA. Joe Blanton tied for the team lead with 16 wins and had a 4.82 ERA. Blanton also had his best month in August, with a 3.13 ERA and 3 wins.

The Twins turned things around when Francisco Lirano joined the starting rotation. However, Liranio went down with an injury in August and will not be available for the playoffs, but the Twins were able to keep the winning going even without the star rookie pitcher. Johan Santana took over the pitching staff, as he had the past three seasons, and Mauer and Morneau led the offense.

The Twins play together as a team just as much as the Athletics do, and in the same way only have two hitters (Mauer and Morneau) who had very good statistical seasons, with solid contributions from many others. Mauer, the hometown kid, hit .347, to win the AL batting title, while Morneau hit .321 with 34 RBI and 130 RBI, and is the leading contender for AL MVP. Luis Castillo hit .296 and Torii Hunter hit .278 with 31 home runs and 98 RBI.

Liriano had an amazing stretch in which he went 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA and 144 strikeouts before falling victim to an arm injury in August. He then ended his season in mid-September after trying to pitch once again, but not being able to. Santana had his third straight amazing season, going 19-6 with a 2.77 ERA and 245 strikeouts. Santana is the leading candidate for the AL Cy Young Award. Brad Radke overcame arm soreness to continue pitching in what could be his last MLB season, and was able to win 12 games for the Twins, while Carlos Silva struggled all year, finishing with a 5.94 ERA.

The Twins and Athletics are very similar teams. Both are team oriented, with only a few key players and many solid ones behind them. Hitting wise, the Twins are the better team, with Morneau putting together a slightly stronger season than Thomas, Mauer a better season than Nick Swisher, and Hunter a better season by far than Bradley.

Pitching wise, the Athletics have the better rotation, but the Twins have the better bullpen. After Johan Santana, the Twins rotation is very shaky, especially with Radke's arm troubles. Barry Zito may not be nearly as good as Santana, but Harden, Haren, Blanton, and Loiaza provide a much better back of the rotation, giving the team five reliable starters. Joe Nathan (1.58 ERA, 7-0, 36 saves), Pat Neshek (4-2, 2.19 ERA) and Juan Rincon (3-1, 2.91 ERA) of the Twins, are two of the best relievers in baseball, while Huston Street is good, with 37 saves and a 3.31 ERA, but not as good as Nathan, and the rest of the bullpen is not as deep as the Twins.

It should be a tough series and should last five games.

The Prediction: Twins Win in Five

Santana will win two games and the Twins offense will carry the team in the other games.